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Scaramucci promotes SkyBridge in the media too. He makes regular appearances as a stock picker on CNBC, and spent more than $100,000 to place the SkyBridge logo in a scene in Stone's second Wall Street drama featuring Gordon Gekko, the insider- trading felon played by Michael Douglas…
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What’s more, everybody wants to be invested in stocks when the market’s going up — just not when it’s going down. Is it possible to actively manage your 401(k) so that you try to go long stocks when they’re going up and then move to cash or bonds when stocks are falling? Well, you can try. But that’s called timing the market, and it tends to end in tears. You are not a hedge-fund manager, and even they get these things wrong. Don’t think you can time the market, because you can’t. So if you want to be invested in up markets, you have to be invested in down markets, too. And as the chart shows, your retirement account will tend to grow most of the time anyway.
This, then, looks much more like a cock-up than a conspiracy. If the banks knew that they could get the IPO away at $80 per share and still see a 15% pop, they would surely have done so. But they didn’t know that, because LinkedIn was the first social-networking company to go public, and therefore no one — on either the buy side or the sell side — really had a clue where the public markets would end up valuing it.
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And in the light of the Groupon released today, it’s no stretch at all to say that “Groupon could turn a profit”: the company’s total loss in the third quarter was a tiny $239,000 — essentially, the company broke even.
What would ethics look like in a world which is messier and more transparent? For one thing, we would spend less effort ring-fencing journalists’ lives and conflicts, and more time simply being open about them. The end result could actually be a significant improvement.
Most importantly, there’s a hidden syllogism here: that if we don’t get onto a path of long-term fiscal sustainability, we’re more likely to end up defaulting in the future. I’d really like to see this spelled out, in a world where the U.S. borrows only in its own currency. There are certainly problems associated with big debts and big deficits, but it would be helpful if S&P spelled out how those problems mean an increased likelihood of default. There is real value to the exorbitant privilege of being able to borrow in dollars when the dollar is not only your own currency but also the global reserve currency — and a large part of that value, it seems to me, is never having to default unless you want to. The U.S., as the home of the dollar, really is special, but the S&P statement never addresses that fact, instead simply comparing U.S. debt ratios to ratios in other countries as though all triple-A countries are equal in this respect. They’re not.
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But then what do the reformers do? They regress the survey answers against test scores, look at which survey questions align most closely with that test-score axis, and declare that those axes — the ones which test scores, by definition, are already measuring — must be the “most important”. Did you think that caring about kids was of paramount importance? Silly you! It turns out that caring about kids isn’t as correlated with test-score results as, say, whether the class learns to correct its mistakes. And therefore, we shouldn’t be worrying as much about whether teachers care about their kids; we should be worrying more about other things, instead. That’s what the test-score regressions tell us, so it must be true!
Mr. Zinn bought about $800,000 of Micrel stock in the four days before Micrel put out an earnings news release saying the company hadn’t been significantly affected by the slowing economy-and announcing that it would begin paying a dividend. Within a month, the shares Mr. Zinn purchased just ahead of this news were up 27%.
It’s possible that the problem with R&D returns is a function of constraints that public companies have, and venture capitalists have, but which megafunds wouldn’t have. It’s possible — but it’s far from certain. And there has to be a pretty good chance that a brand-new megafund, making all the mistakes that a brand-new anything makes, will see zero or negative returns on its first go-round.
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